Demand in Asia is still ahead of other regions, with consumption accounting for 45% of world wave paper production, of which almost two thirds in China, followed by Europe and North America each occupying the region. Approximately 20% of world consumption, estimated at 125 million tons in 2009.
World demand in 2009 decreased by 3.6%, during the economic crisis industrialized countries experienced the most difficult. Demand in Asia rose 3% mainly from China. Despite rising demand, the Chinese market is currently in oversupply with production capacity since 2006, growth has surpassed demand. There will be a reshuffle in 2010, but new production capacity will continue to reach significant levels in 2010 and 2011; Ken Waghorne estimates that over the next two years new production capacity will exceed demand for 7 million tonnes of wave paper.
In 2009, in North America, 45% of Kraft paper was shipped from Asia, followed by Oceania 20%, Russia 16% and the rest of Europe 13%. For self-sufficiency, Russia has a slightly larger market share. For Asia in general, Ken Waghorne expects imports to fall slightly. Regarding recycled corrugated cardboard, Asia will become an export specialist in 2011. Asian imports of corrugated cardboard materials are not as large as manufacturers tend to import paper and cardboard. Not recycled.
East of Europe:
In Eastern Europe, recycled products make up 62% of the market. As noted, the market shrank for the first time since 1996 and 2009, demand down 7.5%. Production output at the end of 2009 increased significantly, including the investment in Mondi’s new plant in Poland. The net imports of recycled cardboard reached the highest level in 2007 of 810,000 tonnes and is currently declining; According to RISI, the leading information provider for the global forest product industry, the import volume is only 410,000 tons in 2011. Eastern Europe is also the exporter of finished pulp produced from raw materials. Corrugated cardboard products, amounting to about ½ million tons per year. Exports may increase slightly if economic growth in Europe improves.
Importing recycled corrugated carton products means dealing with excess capacity.
About three-quarters of the Western European market is dominated by recycled cardstock. Demand, after two years of decline, fell 4% in 2008 and 10% in 2009, which is expected to return to a better level in 2010 with a 4% increase. Even in conjunction with 2011, any output expansion will not offset the lost volume during the economic crisis. Manufacturers must reduce capacity a lot in 2009 but new manufacturing plants will still be available in 2010 and 2011.
Just like most industrial paper, whether it’s paper for packaging or not, the magnitude of this oversupply has forced Western European producers to try and promote their exports. . In this they benefited from the booming economies of the former Eastern Bloc, as well as those of Africa and the Middle East. Regarding recycled cardboard, between 2000 and 2007 annual exports to Eastern Europe increased from 350,000 tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes. Exports to Africa and the Middle East have increased from 150,000 tonnes to 750,000 tonnes in 2008. However, the volume of raw materials exported to Asia and Oceania declined between 2002 and 2007, before showing growth. Last year, they shipped around 180,000 tonnes.
Export prospects in 2010 and 2011 are bleak. After a peak of 2.3 million tonnes in 2009, exports are expected to fall to just 1.5 million tonnes, accounting for only 9% of European production. In Africa and the Middle East, new production capacity will meet growing demand in the country and this will further limit exports. New production capacity in Oceania, the export also directed to the Asian market.
On the trade balance of kraft paper face is deficient and the import helps to be more stable. Between 2000 and 2008, accounted for 26% to 30% of demand in Western Europe. In 2009, due to lower paper prices and falling demand on a large scale, the market reduced its appeal to non-European exporters and imports fell below 1 million tonnes. According to RISI, this situation will continue to decline in 2010 as a result of poor demand and prices are going down because of surplus production but once again the demand will be increased in 2011. In 2009 , The two regions with the leading suppliers are North America and Eastern European countries, importing about 500,000 tons for each of these areas.
For manufacturers, excess capacity and declining exports lead to worse levels of utilization (machinery and equipment). For recycled products, it reached 83% in 2009, and 75% for facial kraft. These rates have now returned to sustainability levels with manufacturers, at 92% and 87%, respectively. However, this level is still lower than their long-term production level and is preventing paper producers from making profits as they did before.
In the United States, 2009 demand rose slightly higher than Europe, but still lower than in 2007. Ken Waghorne expects the demand in 2010 to increase significantly in quantity and quality, with the expansion of demand. The demand for 6% reflects the rapid recovery in manufacturing and construction. US producers have also benefited strongly from demand in South America.
In 2009, US producers exported 1.8 million tonnes of kraft paper to Canada and South America. Exports to Asia and Europe have been stable since 2006 with production of about 600,000 tonnes a year, except for the sharp decline that occurred unexpectedly in early 2009. Exports to Africa and the Middle East have increased. Grew faster and by the end of 2009 reached 1 million tons. In South America, RISI predicts that both 2010 and 2011 will increase by nearly 1.4 million tonnes and net exports will reach 2.4 million tonnes by 2011. US production capacity is not growing enough. Fast to meet the growing demand.
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